{"id":5023,"date":"2020-01-16T14:37:34","date_gmt":"2020-01-16T04:37:34","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/neoporcupine.mine.nu\/blog\/?p=5023"},"modified":"2020-01-16T17:42:21","modified_gmt":"2020-01-16T07:42:21","slug":"record-heating","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/neoporcupine.net\/blog\/index.php\/2020\/01\/16\/record-heating\/","title":{"rendered":"Record heating"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>I occasionally like to take the raw data available and make graphs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"608\" height=\"646\" src=\"http:\/\/neoporcupine.mine.nu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/Temperature_PDO_TSI_2020-01-16.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5024\" srcset=\"http:\/\/neoporcupine.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/Temperature_PDO_TSI_2020-01-16.png 608w, http:\/\/neoporcupine.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/Temperature_PDO_TSI_2020-01-16-282x300.png 282w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 608px) 100vw, 608px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>So what are we looking at. The nasty red line is the increasing temperature (2 year sliding mean &#8211; each point includes the year either side of it). The blue line is the PDO which is ENSO &#8230; El Nino &#8211; La Nina. The orange line is the total solar irradiance &#8211; a measure of the solar energy output.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So the PDO and solar appear to be plummeting which means we could see the heat stabilise for a number of years in the early 2020s. Interestingly, the solar peak 2013-2015 was pretty small, yet we had a thumping temperature rise from 2015 onward.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Remember this is averaged data, so it is smoothed out. Around the world there will continue to be record low and record high temperatures recorded on a day to day or even monthly basis in small areas. However the overall trend is warmer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For a rather dismal graph, check out the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.woodfortrees.org\/plot\/gistemp\/mean:120\/from:1900\/plot\/hadcrut4gl\/mean:120\/from:1900\/plot\/rss\/mean:120\">10 year sliding mean trend since 1900<\/a>. With sampling 10 years you average out the high variability of various natural cycles, leaving mostly the underlying warming trend of climate change &#8230; about 0.15C to 0.22C increase per decade.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I occasionally like to take the raw data available and make graphs. So what are we looking at. The [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[424,1,427],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5023","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-climate","category-uncategorized","category-science"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/neoporcupine.net\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5023","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/neoporcupine.net\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/neoporcupine.net\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/neoporcupine.net\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/neoporcupine.net\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5023"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/neoporcupine.net\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5023\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5025,"href":"http:\/\/neoporcupine.net\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5023\/revisions\/5025"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/neoporcupine.net\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5023"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/neoporcupine.net\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5023"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/neoporcupine.net\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5023"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}