So here’s the deal; a lot of people are going to die from COVID-19.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The COVID-19 mortality rate for children 10-19 is ~0.2% = 2 in 1000 infected will die. If you keep kids in school then they will get COVID-19, the survivors will probably be immune to further infection (not sure) and not pass on the disease (mostly sure), which will<\/em> add to the herd immunity effect. The cost will be the lives of the few kids that died \u2026 and another group that are at higher risk: the parents, the teachers, school admin, and their associated families. The death rates in this group will be much higher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n There is an economic cost to lockdown.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Right now, Scott Morrison doesn’t want the economic cost, and is willing to pay in lives of school kids, and also teachers, school staff and their families. These people may have survived if we have lock down. I strongly suggest the government is not acting on evidence, but they are acting on diminishing the certainty of evidence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Note that kids under 10 appear to be death immune at the moment, but they can get very sick.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Want some evidence?<\/p>\n\n\n\n School Closure and Mitigation of Pandemic (H1N1) 2009, Hong Kong Household Effects of School Closure during Pandemic (H1N1) 2009, Pennsylvania, USA Modelling the impact of local reactive school closures on critical care provision during an influenza pandemic Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic Does closing schools slow the spread of coronavirus? Past outbreaks provide clues Estimating the costs of school closure for mitigating an influenza pandemic Effects of School Closure on Incidence of Pandemic Influenza in Alberta, Canada School opening dates predict pandemic influenza A(H1N1) outbreaks in the United States Analyses of the 1957 (Asian) influenza pandemic in the United Kingdom and the impact of school closures A Small Community Model for the Transmission ofInfectious Diseases: Comparison of School Closure as anIntervention in Individual-Based Models of an Influenza Pandemic Developing guidelines for school closure interventions to be used during a future influenza pandemic Household Responses to Pandemic (H1N1) 2009\u2013related School Closures, Perth, Western Australia Student Behavior during a School Closure Caused by Pandemic Influenza A\/H1N1 Mitigating Pandemic Influenza: The Ethics of Implementing a School Closure Policy Pandemic simulation of antivirals+school closures: buying time until strain-specific vaccine is available Transmission Dynamics, Border Entry Screening, and School Holidays during the 2009 Influenza A (H1N1) Pandemic, China So here’s the deal; a lot of people are going to die from COVID-19. The COVID-19 mortality rate for […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5476","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-health"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/neoporcupine.net\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5476","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/neoporcupine.net\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/neoporcupine.net\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/neoporcupine.net\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/neoporcupine.net\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5476"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"http:\/\/neoporcupine.net\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5476\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5478,"href":"http:\/\/neoporcupine.net\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5476\/revisions\/5478"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/neoporcupine.net\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5476"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/neoporcupine.net\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5476"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/neoporcupine.net\/blog\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5476"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\nEmerging Infectious Disease, 2010
\nhttps:\/\/www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/pmc\/articles\/PMC3206396\/
\n“transmission was reduced \u02dc25% when secondary schools closed”<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\nEmerging Infectious Disease, 2010
\nhttps:\/\/www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/pmc\/articles\/PMC3298323\/
\n“Students spent 77% of the closure days at home, 69% of students visited at least 1 other location, and 79% of households reported that adults missed no days of work to watch children.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\nProceedings of the Royal Society, 2011
\nhttps:\/\/royalsocietypublishing.org\/doi\/full\/10.1098\/rspb.2010.2688
\n“considerable local coordination of school closures is needed to achieve a substantial reduction in the number of hospitals where capacity is exceeded at the peak of the epidemic”<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\nNature, 2006
\nhttps:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/nature04795
\n“School closure during the peak of a pandemic can reduce peak attack rates by up to 40%”<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\nScience, 2020 (blogs)
\nhttps:\/\/www.sciencemag.org\/news\/2020\/03\/does-closing-schools-slow-spread-novel-coronavirus
\n“reactive school closures for a moderately transmissible pathogen reduces the cumulative infection rate by about 25% and delay the peak of the epidemic”<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\nBMC Public Health volume, 2008
\nhttps:\/\/link.springer.com\/article\/10.1186\/1471-2458-8-135
\n“The estimated costs of school closure are significant, at \u00a30.2 bn \u2013 \u00a31.2 bn per week.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\nAnnals of Internal Medicine, 2012
\nhttps:\/\/annals.org\/data\/journals\/aim\/20374\/0000605-201202070-00005.pdf
\n“Mathematical models suggested that school closure reduced transmission among school-age children by more than 50% and that this was a key factor in interrupting transmission”<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\nJournal of Infectious diseases, 2010
\nhttps:\/\/academic.oup.com\/jid\/article\/202\/6\/877\/936322
\n“This result provides evidence that transmission in schools catalyzes community-wide transmission. School opening dates can be useful for future pandemic planning, and influenza mitigation strategies should be targeted at school populations before the influenza season.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\nEpidemiology & Infection, 2007
\nhttps:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/core\/journals\/epidemiology-and-infection\/article\/analyses-of-the-1957-asian-influenza-pandemic-in-the-united-kingdom-and-the-impact-of-school-closures\/A9DBB7503294B3A4B5142BD68E8D297B
\n“closure of schools\/nurseries could reduce the epidemic size only by a very small amount (<10%) if R0 is high (e.g. 2\u00b75 or 3\u00b75), and modest reductions, e.g. 22% might be possible if it is low (1\u00b78) and schools are closed early, depending on assumptions about contact patterns.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\nPLoS one, 2008
\nhttps:\/\/journals.plos.org\/plosone\/article\/file?type=printable&id=10.1371\/journal.pone.0004005
\n“school closure or community contact reduction made significantreductions in the final attack rate”<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\nBMC Infectious Diseases, 2010
\nhttps:\/\/bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.com\/articles\/10.1186\/1471-2334-10-221
\n“An 8 weeks school closure strategy gives 9% (from 50% to 41%) and 4% (from 59% to 55%) reduction in attack rate”<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\nEmerging Infectious Disease, 2010
\nhttps:\/\/www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/pmc\/articles\/PMC2958027\/
\n“In our survey, activities outside the home were commonly reported by students affected by school closure, the effect on families was substantial, and parental opinion regarding school closures as a means to mitigate the outbreak of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 was divided.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\nPLoS One. 2010
\nhttps:\/\/www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/pmc\/articles\/PMC2864742\/
\n“interaction with other students was lower at the end of the closure than at the beginning”
\n“students did not closely adhere to advice from the school about behavior to control the spread of infection. Prior to the closure, students were advised to remain home for one week following onset of fever with respiratory symptoms. This was not followed, and some students attended school the day after symptom onset.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Journal of Public Health Management and Practice, 2008
https:\/\/cdn.journals.lww.com\/jphmp\/Abstract\/2008\/07000\/Mitigating_Pandemic_Influenza__The_Ethics_of.11.aspx
“First, evidence of this intervention’s efficacy has not yet been firmly established, calling into question whether it will be useful against the threat. Second, school closures have the potential to create serious adverse consequences, which will disproportionately affect vulnerable populations.”
NOTE: appears to me to be a weak paper, looks less based on science but more opinion. Attempts to diminish evidence, and emphasises “what-ifs”. Should I expect more from a journal that only has a H-Index 46. Compare to “PLoS One” H-Index 268 or “Emerging Infectious Disease” H-Index 202. This may be a key paper that policy wonks will cite.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory, 2008
https:\/\/link.springer.com\/article\/10.1007\/s10588-008-9027-1
“Simulations show that the combination of antivirals, school closures, and a strain-specific vaccine can reduce morbidity and mortality while in effect.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\nEmerging Infectious Disease, 2012
\nhttps:\/\/www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/pmc\/articles\/PMC3358060\/
\n“the Summer School Holiday appears to have reduced transmission by a minimal amount (no more than 3% reduction in the effective reproduction number)”<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"