I occasionally like to take the raw data available and make graphs.
So what are we looking at. The nasty red line is the increasing temperature (2 year sliding mean – each point includes the year either side of it). The blue line is the PDO which is ENSO … El Nino – La Nina. The orange line is the total solar irradiance – a measure of the solar energy output.
So the PDO and solar appear to be plummeting which means we could see the heat stabilise for a number of years in the early 2020s. Interestingly, the solar peak 2013-2015 was pretty small, yet we had a thumping temperature rise from 2015 onward.
Remember this is averaged data, so it is smoothed out. Around the world there will continue to be record low and record high temperatures recorded on a day to day or even monthly basis in small areas. However the overall trend is warmer.
For a rather dismal graph, check out the 10 year sliding mean trend since 1900. With sampling 10 years you average out the high variability of various natural cycles, leaving mostly the underlying warming trend of climate change … about 0.15C to 0.22C increase per decade.